Confianza social, ideología política y satisfacción democrática en Europa: un análisis comparado 2002–2024
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Este artículo examina el impacto de la polarización ideológica sobre la confianza social generalizada y la satisfacción con la democracia en Europa con datos de once rondas del European Social Survey (2002–2024). El análisis adopta una perspectiva comparada entre tres bloques regionales: países del sur de Europa (EU Sur), el núcleo histórico de la UE (UE Centro) y países incorporados tras la ampliación de 2004 (UE Ampliada). Se aplican técnicas no paramétricas y modelos de regresión para explorar tres dimensiones: evolución temporal de la confianza, efectos de la ideología política y relación entre confianza social y apoyo democrático. Los resultados muestran que no existe un deterioro uniforme en la confianza interpersonal, sino trayectorias diferenciadas: aumento en UE Ampliada, estabilidad en EU Sur y niveles más altos en UE Centro. Los extremos ideológicos presentan diferentes niveles de confianza y satisfacción democrática, aunque con variaciones regionales. Como contribución principal, la evidencia empírica confirma que la confianza social predice consistentemente la satisfacción con la democracia, con mayor intensidad en contextos institucionales consolidados. El estudio contribuye a comprender el vínculo entre polarización política y capital social, destacando la importancia del contexto regional en el análisis de la legitimidad democrática.
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Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial 4.0.
Este artículo se distribuye bajo Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial 4.0 (CC BY-NC 4.0) .
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